Research shows that future super cyclones ex

0

Super cyclones, the most intense form of tropical storm, are likely to have a much more devastating impact on people in South Asia in years to come, a new study has found.

The international research, led by the University of Bristol, looked at 2020’s Super Cyclone Amphan – the costliest cyclone to make landfall in South Asia – and projected its consequences under different sea level rise scenarios of the sea due to global warming.

His findings, published today in the journal Royal Meteorological Society Climate resilience and sustainabilityshowed that if the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continued on the same scale, more than two and a half times (250%) the Indian population would experience floods of more than one meter, compared to the event of 2020.

Lead author Dann Mitchell, professor of climate science at the University of Bristol, said: “South Asia is one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world, with super cyclones causing dozens of hundreds of thousands of deaths in historic cases. Comparatively, very little research on climate impact has been conducted in South Asia, despite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change designating it as such a critical region.

“This study, in collaboration with local scientists, provides much-needed information on climate impact in one of the world’s most vulnerable regions. It presents a critical piece of evidence in support of progressively reducing our greenhouse gas emissions to meet the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, where other data sources too often focus on countries. high-income where impacts are lower and where adaptation is more easily achievable.

The researchers, which included scientists from Bangladesh, used projections from sophisticated climate models to anticipate the scale of people affected by cyclones in the rest of this century.

Although the growing number of people at risk is expected to be more modest in Bangladesh, with an estimated increase of 60% to 70%, this takes into account the decline of coastal populations in the future. Encouragingly, the research team went on to show that if the Paris Agreement climate targets of a warming of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels were met, population exposure to flooding was there. close to zero.

But even under this scenario of global warming, exposures in India still showed an alarming increase of 50% to 80% and are expected to suffer floods in the future.

The main objective of the Paris Agreement, a global framework to combat climate change, is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to strive limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.

Saiful Islam, Professor of Hydrology at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and contributing author of the study, said: “The latest IPCC report mentioned with great confidence that tropical cyclones with higher intensity categories will be more frequent in the future. This study shows that population exposure in Bangladesh and India will be increased by up to 200% in the future for extreme storm floods (greater than 3 meters) caused by intense cyclones under high emission scenarios . Therefore, a strong, rapid and sustained reduction in greenhouse gases is essential to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and reduce the loss and damage of highly vulnerable countries like Bangladesh.

Paper

“Increased population exposure to Amphan-scale cyclones under future climates” by Dann Mitchell et al in Climate resilience and sustainability.

Notes to Editors

Lead author Dann Mitchell, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Bristol, is available for an interview and advance copies of the article are available on request. Please contact: Victoria Tagg, Media & PR Manager at Bristol University: [email protected]


Warning: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of press releases posted on EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.


Source link

Share.

Comments are closed.